RODGERS VS FAVRE

First off, how cool is that picture? Yeah, I took it. Anyways, now that I've let you know a little bit about myself, it's time to actually start blogging! Sweeeet! A lot has happened in Green Bay over the past year and a half, but I should lose all credibility right from the get go if I don't start by stating my case in the Rodgers vs Favre saga. Especially since I basically just professed my love for Brett Favre to all readers. So here it is, my take on the messy situation.

First off, I wish Brett would have taken longer to make his decision. This whole situation could have been avoided if he didn't jump to a conclusion and think he didn't want to play anymore. Dammit Brett I love you, but this could have been spared. It did seem quite clear, however, that even though he had done so much during the 2007 season, a rejuvenated MVP type season if it weren't for Tom Brady and his stupid antics out in New England (yes I loathe the Patriots for their cheating ways), that the Packers were ready to move on from Brett. A-Rod had been waiting in the wing for long enough and the organization believed that it was time for him to step in. Blah, blah, blah, on and on. And this thing got ugly. But that is besides the point, for this argument at least. Did the Packers make the right decision? Rodgers vs Favre.

First, we will look at the basic numbers from the 2008 season.

Rodgers: 63.6 Completion %, 4038 yards, 28 TD, 13 INT, 93.8 QB rating
Favre: 65.7 Completion %, 3472 yards, 22 TD, 22 INT, 81.0 QB rating

Step 1 - Completion percentage is nearly equal. And there isn't much distortion there; Rodgers attempted only 14 more passes than Favre, so we will go with push here. Step 2 - Rodgers clearly outdoes Favre in yards. At the pace Brett threw for (217 YPG) in 2008, he would have needed more than two and a half more games just to tie Rogers. Edge to A-Rod. Step 3 - Rodgers gets the clear edge in touchdowns and interceptions as well. If you take away Favre's 6 TD performance against the Cardinals in week 4, and add back in what his average says he would have had in the game, he gets knocked from 22 all the way down to 17 (22-6=16. 16 TD/15 games = 1.066 TDs per game. Add that to 16). Step 4 - QB rating to Rodgers as well. Almost 13 points higher than Brett, and if we factor out the Cardinals game again it could have been a few points difference. So, in measuring 2008 seasons in terms of basic statistics, Rodgers would seem like the right decision.

Next, we will look at Rodgers in 2008 vs Favre in 2007.

Rodgers (2008): 63.6 Completion %, 4038 yards, 28 TD, 13 INT, 93.8 QB rating
Favre (2007): 66.5 Completion %, 4155 yards, 28 TD, 15 INT, 95.7 QB Rating

WOW. That's like, mirror image type wow. Their yards per attempt (Favre 7.8 vs Rodgers 7.5) and fumbles (Favre 9 with 3 lost and Rodgers 10 with 3 lost) are both even nearly identical. I will simply say that all of these statistics point to a push between their two years. I don't think I've heard anyone else mention that Rodgers first year under the helm was this statistically close to Favre's miracle run in 2007. Maybe I just missed someone saying it, or maybe I'm the first to point it out, but think about THAT as well. This was Rodgers first year as a starting quarterback in the National Football League. He had attempted 59 passes in his entire career before this season, most of which came vs Dallas in 2007 when Favre had to leave with an injury. Oh, but we are far from over.

Living in New York, I got to see a lot of Brett this year (hooray for that!... finally). And that allows me to make this simple statement: his receivers were not the playmakers that Jennings, Driver, and Jones were for him in 2007. Coles and Cotchery are nearly mirror images of each other split on opposite sides of the field. Jennings could do it all, catch the short slant and make a play, or go deep for Brett to throw it up. Driver did all of the underneath and dirty work. Jones had a stellar season with Brett throwing to him. Not to mention everyone else in the mix for the Pack in 2007. But in New York, Brett had no deep threat. Defenses could press his receivers because they knew that it was very unlikely that they would get beat deep. Neither Coles nor Cotchery were big enough or physical enough to get off the line and put themselves in a position to make plays for him. In fact, if you double Chad Pennington's numbers from an injury shortened 2007 season in New York, they would nearly equate Brett's 2008 season with the team. Yet, both quarterbacks had better seasons with other teams, in other offenses, with other players surrounding them. And yes, this is me stating that I still believe that Brett would have been successful in Green Bay this year if the team would have brought him back.

Ah, but just as I seem to be drifting towards the "they should have never turned their back on a player who has done so much for them" ::cough cough:: man crush ::cough cough:: and avoided such a messy situation, I bring in something new. In 2007, the Packers offensive line only allowed Favre to be sacked 15 times. In 2008, Rodgers fell victim to defenses 34 times. Now, either you can look at it and say "Well, that means Rodgers isn't getting the ball off fast enough," or you could see that the line was suffering from the injury bug during the 2008 season, and say "Imagine what A-Rod's stats would have been like with the type of protection Favre had in 2007."

On ESPN's Mike and Mike in the Morning on Thursday, Rodgers was quoted as saying, "as a quarterback, you're paid to win games, you're paid to be clutch down the stretch and I wasn't" (Courtesy of the Press-Gazette). And yes, this is where I bring in that statistic. That whole winning thing. I guess it's important in professional sports, since it's a business and all. Actually, it's very important. And while Brett brought the Packers 13 regular season wins in 2007, Rodgers could only muster 6. And that is a BIG difference in the NFL. The green and gold went from one away from the Super Bowl, to third place in the NFC North, behind the Bears (YUCK). But, after looking at some stats, I don't know if you can necessarily claim that A-Rod wasn't clutch. In fourth quarters when the game was within 7, he threw for 8 TDs and 5 INTs. That is compared to Brett's 4 and 4, respectively, in 2007. When behind, at any point in any game, Rodgers threw 14 TD and had 10 INT. In 2007, 10 and 7 for Brett.

Clearly, the numbers are very similar when comparing Favre's 2007 season with Rodgers' in 2008. Injuries really bit the Pack in '08, both on offense and defense (don't forget Al Harris missing some time and then playing injured, while Cullen Jenkins playing in only 4 games, and Nick Barnett needed ACL surgery, just to mention a few). Basically, my claim is this: While it hurt to see Brett go, to see how out of control it got, and to have to see him in another uniform, I give the Packers credit for making the move and sticking with their guy they spent the whole off-season prepping for his chance and molding the team around. And, in my eyes, Aaron Rodgers did not disappoint in 2008. Now, let us move forward in the Rodgers era, and hail the true A-Rod!